NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For first time this year, NASCAR will be under the lights when the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR in Richmond as the pioneer at the NASCAR Dragon Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He is searching for his fourth win of the year along with also the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 chances provide him a 9-4 chance to get it as he starts in fifth position after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the quickest pace in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, providing him the pole position. His NASCAR in Richmond chances have moved out of 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are among the other leading contenders in this .75-mile brief course. Before locking in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 picks of your own, first be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions in the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Produced by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track record and recent results into account.

The version is off to a solid start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin a top-four competition from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top . Additionally, it nailed Busch’s enormous win at Bristol a week. Anybody who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at iconic venues like Richmond Raceway are in his blood. Now, his version simulated the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For NASCAR at Richmond 2019we could tell you the version is top on Kyle Larson, making a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite heading off at 25-1 NASCAR in Richmond odds.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, that’s the third-best among active drivers. He’s finished seventh or better in four of his last five events in Richmond and won the Richmond fall race in 2017. He will begin in 14th place after a marginally slower than anticipated qualifying period of 123.54 MPH. However he posted the fastest lap (121.70 MPH) at the first practice session on Friday, so he has shown the speed needed to climb the NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

And a massive shocker: Truex Jr., among the best Vegas favorites in 6-1, doesn’t crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR in Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting in the standings, but he’s tapered off lately. Truex finished 12th at Texas Motor Speedway after which struggled last week in Bristol, ending 17th. In his career, Truex has not fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In reality, he’s finished in the top five only 3 times in 26 career starts at the monitor.

The version is also targeting two additional drivers using 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds of 20-1 or more time to make a serious run at winning it all. Anybody who backs these long shots could hit it big.

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