NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 102 Wins
WIN 62% OF NEUTRAL FIELD SIMULATIONS
The regular season went as anticipated. They won 100 games versus an anticipated win total of 100. They won 58% over the road which was as expected (58%). They won 53 in the home and were expected to win 53. Our projected record for next season is comparable. They’re averaging 102 wins per sim and are estimated to finish first in the American League. There’s not a lot of gap between them and the #3 rated Red Sox that are projected for 100 wins. They’re a competition with a 15.2% probability of winning the World Series according to simulations and also a 25% probability of accomplishing the Series. In spite of all the juice, they’re a good futures betting value with championship chances of 6/1, 14.3% and chances to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7 percent. They’re the favorite to win the AL East in 53.5percent but they are not a good value to acquire the division at 4/5 (55.6%) odds.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Had they never had a firesale of the high talent this off-season they would have been projected to win nearly 90 matches and could have been real contenders. Their 103 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.4 over what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their potency was in road games. They gained 70.4% over the road that was much better than expected (58.9%). They won 46 at home and were expected to win 53.8. Anticipate a similar record following season. In our latest simulations they’re averaging 102 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. There’s not a lot of gap between them and the #3 ranked Red Sox that are projected to get 100 wins. They are a competition with a 18.9% probability of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 32% chance of accomplishing the Series. In spite of all the juice, they’re a good futures value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3percent and odds to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7%. The Astros are not as good as the Yankees if they had the exact same schedule and same division. But given their overwhelming favorite standing to win their division (84% in simulations. 1/8, 89% likelihood ) they have a much better prospect of preventing the Wild Card match and then have the very best chance of winning it all out of the American League.
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