NEW YORK YANKEES 100-62 | 2019 Projection: 102 Wins
WIN 62% OF NEUTRAL FIELD SIMULATIONS
The normal season went as anticipated. They won 100 games vs an expected win total of 100. They won 58 percent over the street which was expected (58%). They won 53 at home and were expected to acquire 53. Our projected document for following season is comparable. They’re averaging 102 wins per sim and are estimated to finish first in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 rated Red Sox who are projected to get 100 wins. They are a contender with a 15.2% probability of winning the World Series according to simulations and also a 25% probability of reaching the sequence. In spite of all the juice, they are a decent futures betting value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL in 11/4, 26.7%. They are the favorite to win the AL East in 53.5percent but they are not a good value to win the branch at 4/5 (55.6%) odds.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Had they never had a firesale of the top talent this off-season they’d have been projected to win almost 90 games and would have been real contenders. Their 103 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.4 over what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their potency was in street games. They gained 70.4% over the street that was better than expected (58.9%). They won 46 in the home and were expected to acquire 53.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 102 wins and are estimated to finish second in the American League. There is not a lot of gap between them and the #3 rated Red Sox who are projected for 100 wins. They’re a competition with a 18.9% chance of winning the World Series according to simulations and a 32% probability of reaching the Series. In spite of all the juice, they are a decent futures value with championship chances of 6/1, 14.3% and chances to win the AL in 11/4, 26.7 percent. The Astros aren’t as good as the Yankees if they all had the same schedule and same branch. However, given their overwhelming favorite status to win their division (84 percent in simulations. 1/8, 89% likelihood ) they have a lot greater chance of avoiding the Wild Card game and then have the best chance of winning it all out of the American League.
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