Handicapping NASCAR’s Championship Four at Homestead-Miami Speedway

Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano will race to the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway (Green flag: 3:03 p.m. ET, NBC).

According to gambling odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Busch and Harvick are the favorites at +200, followed by Truex (+275) and Logano (+450).
Employing results and 2018 loop information, we handicap the race and give a championship pick.
After 35 races, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano have made the right to fight for the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) championship Sunday in Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Busch (2015),” Harvick (2014) and Truex (2017) have all notched one championship in their careers, while Logano is attempting to secure his original.

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It is not surprise to visit Busch, Harvick and Truex still alive, as”The Big Three” combined to win 20 of the 35 regular-season races this season. Logano scored two wins himselfbut rode 25 top-10 endings to make his shot at Homestead.

Employing historical loop data from FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com, let’s break down the contenders to ascertain the best bet to acquire the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championshipgame.

The Track
While Homestead-Miami joins a handful of other MENCS tracks at 1.5 miles in length, there really are not any other people on the circuit like it.

Homestead offers progressive banking, which enables lines to run .

The track surface is also very abrasive, which wears out tires quickly and makes rubber a huge advantage.

With tire wear creating cars hard to drive and progressive banking allowing drivers to choose unique lines, passing is simpler here than at most other 1.5-mile paths that are overly reliant on aero for speed and therefore create follow-the-leader racing.

For the analysis below, I chose to analyze the previous four races in Hometead-Miami Speedway.

Applying four races may seem a bit arbitrary, but I picked on that amount for two specific reasons. First, 2014 was the year which NASCAR went into the current playoff format in which drivers advance through the sport’s playoff until four remain to race to the title at Homestead.

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