Seven teams got beat by double digits at Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season and we are seeing inflated spreads for Week 2 due to the overreaction and overcorrection of chances. But over the previous five seasons, the groups that got crushed in their opening match by 10 points or more have insured the spread 63% of their time in Week 2.
There were 34 cases of teams losing from double-digit points in Week 1 and their album is still 21-12-1 ATS for Week 2. That record seemed so dubious I had to double-check the result myself from our stats man (shout-out to Will!) .
See the table below angles you could take advantage of for Week two and that exemplifies this tendency:
Since you can see, the ATS percentage doesn’t change much dependent on the sample size of last year, the past few seasons and the previous five seasons. Now, this is not me to take out a second mortgage and set it around the Dolphins +19??distribute vs the Patriots however there is some virtue to throwing a bounce-back from groups at Week 2 by them keeping games winning (52.9% over past five years).
The seven teams which lost by 10 points or more in Week 1 would be Jaguars, Steelers, Browns, the Dolphins, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
We wouldn’t be much of an authority on odds and tendencies if we did examine the side and see the way that teams do after crushing an opponent in Week 1. According to the past five seasons, the teams that won by 10 points or more from Week 1 have only covered 45.5 percent of the matches in Week 2.
See the table below for 2018, the last 3 seasons and five seasons:
There is a regression from these winners that is probably because opposing guards have and they won’t be caught off guard as evidenced in the table over.
It’s also because of spreads which are not an actual representation of how those groups are ATS. For reference, the seven teams which won by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.
To find the most recent betting odds for Week 2, take a look at our NFL Odds Page.
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