This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Minnesota. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. In addition they possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. There are only 14 more seats remaining so there won’t be much more time to qualify if you are attempting to. I will try to receive my 3rd chair this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I like Gordon to get the win this weekend and he will be a cash match play of mine personally. There are better fights to target when we are on the lookout for 1st round knockouts however I will be focusing more on people in GPPs. I like the floor and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is why he’s the money play of this week. I don’t think Moret has got the ability to actually examine the chin of Gordon’s that has seemed to be his biggest weakness recently. With the pace Gordon sets I presume he’s 100+ upside into a decision win and I really don’t see him becoming finished here so he should have a good floor. I believe his floor in a win is probably 80+ as well which is completely fine for money games. This is a catchy weak, but this is my personal favorite cash game spot of this week.
GPP play of this week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I needed to go with Ngannou here. If he wins it is most likely a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 about the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, then he scores over 100 DK points and in his 8.8k salary that will place him on the 25k lineup. He will be quite chalky this week though so be sure to load him up if you are multi-entering if you would like to find leverage over the field. I really do think JDS is a live underdog here as well, so I will be targeting both sides of the struggle, but I really do observe 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here and that can beat a good deal of the fighters priced over him.
Underdog play of this week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week since I’m not picking any actual underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only man who would be considered an underdog I think will win and I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we are getting him for $200 less than Greene but that I wouldn’t be surprised if Albini was the favorite on the betting line moving into the fights. With these guys being Heavyweights, it does not take much to get a knockout and should Albini can do this at $8k he can give me a run at the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight also and she burned me scoring a 1st round entry. I am going back into the fade here though and trusting the same does not happen. On a card where I am choosing basically each favorite, I would rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire at her 8.5k price tag. I am not sure that moving into the ground is in her very best interest in this struggle and if she stays standing I don’t see her paying off value in a win. If I had been making 150 lineups this week then I would be taking some shots on Whitmire, but that I will probably only make ~20 and that I will not make my player pool with this many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 83-52 to get +251.89un (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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